The art of prediction

 

Economists join climate scientists in the quest for better forecasting.

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In an effort to provide more accuracy in assessing the global impact of rising carbon dioxide levels, climate scientists have started working with economists to improve forecasting models.
 
Although there is almost unanimous agreement that there will be significant changes to the Earth’s atmosphere - including temperature rises – there is a lack of consensus and clarity among climate change scientists about the degree of change. In an effort to improve this and to provide a more accurate basis for policy, economists have entered the climate change arena.
 
Working to incorporate economic modelling into meteorological forecasting, The European Science Foundation (ESF), a European association comprised of 67 scientific funding agencies, has facilitated an exchange between the two groups.

Predicting the same future

As both disciplines share a similar theoretical basis, for example serial correlation -where predictions of future values are based on earlier starting values - the exchange has proved fruitful and could lead to newer, more accurate climate change models. In economics, the variable might be a price, whereas in climate change it might be a temperature, but the principle remains the same.
 
Commenting on the outcome, the exchange’s co-convenor Peter Thejll said: "We achieved our goal of bringing together people from two very distant but equally valuable fields. It was designed as a one-way session whereby econometricians were supposed to convey knowledge of econometric methods to the climate researchers. To solve important climate problems related to climate change and change attribution with statistics, these methods have to be used and understood by climate researchers."
 

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